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publications

Projecting regions of North Atlantic right whale, Eubalaena glacialis, habitat suitability in the Gulf of Maine for the year 2050

Published in Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene, 2021

This study used three species distribution modeling algorithms, together with historical whale abundance data (1993–2009) and environmental covariate data, to build monthly ensemble models of North Atlantic right whale habitat suitability in the Gulf of Maine and project them onto the year 2050 under a range of climate scenarios.

Recommended citation: Ross, C.H., Pendleton, D.E., Tupper, B., Brickman, D., Zani, M.A., Mayo, C.A., & Record, N.R. (2021). "Projecting regions of North Atlantic right whale, Eubalaena glacialis, habitat suitability in the Gulf of Maine for the year 2050." Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene, 9(1), 1. https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.2020.20.00058

Estimating North Atlantic right whale prey based on Calanus finmarchicus thresholds

Published in Marine Ecology Progress Series, 2023

This paper models the environmental conditions associated with high-density Calanus finmarchicus aggregations that exceed nominal North Atlantic right whale feeding thresholds, using a random forest approach designed to link with existing right whale density decision-support tools.

Recommended citation: Ross, C.H., Runge, J.A., Roberts, J.J., Brady, D.C., Tupper, B., & Record, N.R. (2023). "Estimating North Atlantic right whale prey based on Calanus finmarchicus thresholds." Marine Ecology Progress Series, 703, 1–16. https://doi.org/10.3354/meps14204

The Surprising Oceanography of the Gulf of Maine

Published in Maine Policy Review, 32(2), Our Shared Ocean, 2023

This paper reviews the history of oceanographic surprises in the Gulf of Maine and applies a formal statistical definition of surprise to multidecadal physical and biological time series, finding that surprises occur more frequently than expected and have increased in frequency in recent years.

Recommended citation: Record, N.R., Tupper, B., Evanilla, J., Oliveira, K.S., Ngai, L., Ross, C.H., & Stamieszkin, K. (2023). "The Surprising Oceanography of the Gulf of Maine." Maine Policy Review, 32(2), 20–28.

Describing the seasonal and spatial distribution of Calanus prey and North Atlantic right whale potential foraging habitats in Canadian waters using species distribution models.

Published in Canadian Science Advisory Secretariat Research Document, 2024

The goal of this study was to describe the seasonal and spatial variations of Calanus species abundance and North Atlantic Right Whale (henceforth NARW) potential foraging habitat in Canadian waters during 1999-2020.

Recommended citation: Plourde, S., Lehoux, C., Roberts, J. J., Johnson, C. L., Record, N., Pepin, P., Orphanides, C., Schick, R. S., Walsh, H. J., and Ross, C. H. 2024. Describing the seasonal and spatial distribution of Calanus prey and North Atlantic right whale potential foraging habitats in Canadian waters using species distribution models. Canadian Science Advisory Secretariat Research Document, 2024/039. v + 71 p. http://chross22.github.io/files/paper4.pdf

Suitability of foraging habitat for Eubalaena glacialis under future climate scenarios in the Northwest Atlantic

Published in Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene, 2025

This paper uses boosted regression tree models of prey copepod distributions to project how North Atlantic right whale foraging habitat suitability across the Northwest Atlantic Shelf will shift under future climate scenarios.

Recommended citation: Johnson, O.H., Plourde, S., Lehoux, C., Ross, C.H., Tupper, B., Orphanides, C.D., Walsh, H.J., & Record, N.R. (2025). "Suitability of foraging habitat for Eubalaena glacialis under future climate scenarios in the Northwest Atlantic." Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene, 13(1), 00044. http://chross22.github.io/files/paper6.pdf

Beyond Calanus: changes to the copepod community in the northeast USA and implications for North Atlantic right whale foraging energetics

Published in Endangered Species Research, 2025

Using four decades of NOAA monitoring data, this paper documents decadal-scale shifts in the copepod prey community across the northeast US shelf and their implications for the energetic value of North Atlantic right whale foraging habitat.

Recommended citation: Evans, T.C., Record, N.R., Ross, C.H., & Thorne, L.H. (2025). "Beyond Calanus: changes to the copepod community in the northeast USA and implications for North Atlantic right whale foraging energetics." Endangered Species Research, 56, 1–17. http://chross22.github.io/files/paper5.pdf

Incorporating prey fields into North Atlantic right whale density surface models

Published in Endangered Species Research, 2025

This study tests whether tailored North Atlantic right whale prey fields — representing high-density aggregations of Calanus finmarchicus, Centropages typicus, and Pseudocalanus spp. — improve predictive power in right whale density surface models relative to conventional prey proxies such as chlorophyll concentration.

Recommended citation: Ross, C.H., Roberts, J.J., Pendleton, D.E., Brady, D.C., Stamieszkin, K., & Record, N.R. (2025). "Incorporating prey fields into North Atlantic right whale density surface models." Endangered Species Research, 58, 67–84. https://doi.org/10.3354/esr01435 http://chross22.github.io/files/paper7.pdf