Suitability of foraging habitat for Eubalaena glacialis under future climate scenarios in the Northwest Atlantic

The critically endangered North Atlantic right whale (Eubalaena glacialis) faces significant anthropogenic mortality, and recent climatic shifts in traditional habitats have caused abrupt changes in right whale distributions, challenging conservation strategies. This study trained boosted regression tree algorithms with fine-resolution environmental covariates to model historical and future distributions of prey copepod (Calanus) species and, in turn, E. glacialis foraging habitat suitability across the Northwest Atlantic Shelf, from the Mid-Atlantic Bight to the Labrador Shelf. Future projections indicate that suitable foraging habitat will decrease in parts of the Gulf of Maine and southwestern Gulf of Saint Lawrence, while it may be maintained or improved on the western Scotian Shelf, in the Bay of Fundy, and on the Newfoundland and Labrador shelves.

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Recommended citation: Johnson, O.H., Plourde, S., Lehoux, C., Ross, C.H., Tupper, B., Orphanides, C.D., Walsh, H.J., & Record, N.R. (2025). “Suitability of foraging habitat for Eubalaena glacialis under future climate scenarios in the Northwest Atlantic.” Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene, 13(1), 00044.